Financial Markets and the Global Recession-Chapter contribution: "Global Recession: Just a Glitch or Is It Here to Stay?"
Nova Science Publishers, New York · Jan 1, 2011Nova Science Publishers, New York · Jan 1, 2011
January 01, 2011
The recent credit crunch of 2008 ignited in 2009 one of the most severe economic slowdowns since the World War II. Even though there is a consensus that we have entered a serious global economic recession that will probably change the balance of power between emerging countries and Western economies, there are still many unanswered questions. What triggered the recession and what is its true nature? What are the similarities between the current recession and the Great Depression? Has the long-term growth trend of the global economy been compromised or is this recession a cyclical phenomenon? At what extent will it affect the balance of international powers? And the most important question of all: is it a random or a systematic phenomenon that we could have predicted? If so, what can we do now to minimize losses? In this book chapter, we shed some light on these questions based mainly on a recent study concerning the future of the global economy, published just a few days prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 that signaled the beginning of the credit crisis. Furthermore, by combining data from this study and other sources, we provide the reader with both qualitative and quantitative insights about the current recession.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Risk Management, Social
Mobile Telephones: Networks, Applications, and Performance-Chapter contribution: "The Suitability of S-curves in Forecasting the Mobile Phone Market"
Nova Science Publishers, New York · Jan 1, 2008Nova Science Publishers, New York · Jan 1, 2008
January 01, 2008
In this book chapter, we test the suitability of s-curves in forecasting the mobile market. In order to do so we compare (a) forecasts made for China’s mobile subscriptions with data up to 2001, with actual data for years up to 2006 and (b) forecasts made for World’s mobile subscriptions with data up to 2004, with actual data for years up to 2006. China’s projections with limited data up to year 2001 gave relatively accurate estimates of mobile subscriptions with less than 8% error for 2006.In the case of World mobile subscriptions, the emergence of a second growth wave after the completion of a first one is confirmed, thus leading to a new estimate of approximately 3.5 billion subscriptions (the impact of 3G connectivity after 2007, not captured in this analysis, actually led to an even greater number of subscriptions near 4.5 billion at 2010).
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Tags: Business Strategy, Mobility, Predictive Analytics
Founder FutureUP
FutureUP
January 01, 2023
Founder & CEO of FutureUP, a company involved in Predictive AI with focus on Price optimization and Strategic Forecasting for B2B companies
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Tags: AI, Predictive Analytics, Startups
CoFounder & ex coCEO Cube RM
Cube RM
February 01, 2017
CoFounder, Board member, and ex coCEO Cube RM, a leading company in AI-powered Tender Management software, having raised 9mn in Seed & Series A funding
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Tags: AI, Predictive Analytics, Startups
Founder & Managing Director Global Forecasting Solutions
Global Forecasting Solutions (inactive from 2020)
February 01, 2016
Founder & Managing Director Global Forecasting Solutions, a company into Predictive Analytics for enterprises
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Tags: AI, Predictive Analytics, Startups
Forecasting Net blog site
Forecasting Net
January 01, 2011
The Forecasting Net is a think tank for professionals, futurists, and simple enthusiasts interested in AI, forecasting, price optimization, and future trends.
Its purpose is to help increase our visibility of the future by monitoring emerging trends in technology, our society, business, and the global economy by using all means available, from simple observation and analysis to complex AI tools.
We put a lot of emphasis on presenting everything in a simple and straightforward manner that everyone can understand. Towards this goal, the Forecasting Net launched in 2011 a Blog to post and comment on new trends, AI & forecasting techniques, hints & tips, guides, software, and any other relevant material that is of value to our audience.
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Tags: AI, Innovation, Predictive Analytics
Social User Experience for Effective Mobile Advertising
IGI Global, Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition, p.1415-1424 · Jan 1, 2015IGI Global, Encyclopedia of Information Scien
January 01, 2015
Mobile is the fastest growing segment on the online advertising market creating opportunities for life-enriching UX and value within this emerging marketplace (Chen & Hsieh, 2011). Mobile advertising is described as a form of advertising that is communicated to the consumer/target via a handset. This type of advertising is most commonly seen as a Mobile Web Banner (top of page), Mobile Web Poster (bottom of page), and full screen interstitial, which appears while a requested mobile web page is “loading’(Mobile Marketing Association, 2008), primarily in smartphones as well as Tablets. As mobile technology applications continue to increase, so do the number of mobile subscribers. With a penetration of 84 percent of mobile subscribers in the United States, with this percentage surging to 100 percent by 2013 (Kagan, 2007) and the latest figures from Nielsen (2012) showing that between July 2011 …
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Tags: Marketing, Mobility, Social
Forecasting “In the Pocket”: Mobile devices can improve collaboration
Foresight, Issue 32, Winter 2014, p.13-18 · Jan 1, 2014
January 01, 2014
This article presents specific approaches for the future of mobile forecasting applications. We explore how the increasing popularity of PDAs, smartphones, tablet computers, and other mobile devices opens up new opportunities for communication and collaboration on business forecasts. Furthermore, mobile forecasting applications may streamline approaches to collaboration between retailers and suppliers, thus contributing to the provision and exchange of product information, especially since forecasts are strongly tied to local context knowledge.
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Tags: AI, Mobility, Predictive Analytics
IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy
Technological Forecasting and Social Change / Elsevier · Feb 1, 2011
February 01, 2011
In this article, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced that can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights of the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. First, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and presented a basic framework of understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply. In the other case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reaction kinetics. The result is the well known rate law of chemical reaction kinetics thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The future of the global economy
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier · Sep 1, 2008
September 01, 2008
*Ranked No 2 most downloaded paper in the journal for the period Jan - Mar 2009
*Top 20% of citations in the journal as of June 2013
In this paper we use the assumption that global activity, as measured by real GDP, follows the well known s-curve function. Also, in order to model the relative power of specific regions, we use the Logistic Substitution method. Estimates from the derived models are tested against actual data and linked to real historical events where appropriate. According to the paper, the global economy follows a two-century growth wave, from 1917 to 2112, attributed to globalization. This period is equally divided into five phases called “seasons” that last nearly 40 years and constitute successive periods of growth, saturation, and decline. Almost every forty years, near the middle of each season, there is a peak point that initiates a cyclical slowdown of the global economy. The cyclical downtrend occurs when the economy “overshoots” i.e. when the ratio between actual and estimated GDP is at maximum. The first two cyclical slowdowns occurred in 1937, near the start of World War II and in 1975, near the outburst of the oil crisis. The next cyclical peak occurs in 2013, very close to the ongoing global economic crisis. Furthermore, the paper concludes that China's emergence as a superpower could have been predicted even as way back as 1985 by using the Logistic Substitution method. Although China will continue to grow, in terms of percentage contribution to global GDP, by the year 2024 it is expected to enter a substitution phase, as our world will most likely experience the emergence of a new “superpower” that will take its place, and once more will change the international landscape as we know it today.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The future of the mobile phone business
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier · Dec 1, 2005
December 01, 2005
*Ranked No 3 most downloaded paper in the journal for the period Apr - Jun 2007
*Top 5% of citations in the journal as of June 2013
In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole World, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models we make predictions about the future of the mobile business.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Mobility, Predictive Analytics
Combining Predictive AI with Neuroscience to identify the Best Price across countries
FutureUP & Neurensics
September 12, 2023
️ AI-based Price Optimization across countries
️ What-if scenarios for inflation and spending income
️ Real customer case – new product launch
Prepare to have your mind blown as we unveil the secret behind the game-changing pricing strategyfor Scent Camera by combining FutureUP cutting-edge Predictive AI technology with Neurensics groundbreaking Neuroscience!
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Tags: AI, Innovation, Predictive Analytics
Online webinar: Mastering B2B SaaS Pricing in a Dynamic Market
FutureUP
May 03, 2023
Leveraging AI and Advanced Pricing Methods to Stay Ahead
A thought-provoking webinar on pricing strategies in today's dynamic market landscape. In the face of turbulent times characterized by inflation, potential recession, geopolitical uncertainty, and new technologies, pricing has become even more critical and complex.
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Tags: AI, Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics
Brazil Tender Market
Cube RM
September 13, 2022
Brazil Tender Market: Get insights into one of the biggest & most complex tender markets worldwide.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Startups
Webinar | Your Ideal Tender Excellence Journey with Industry Benchmarking
Cube RM
February 24, 2022
In an ideal tender world, what would you like to know or have to build a flawless tendering process? Get an overview of your company’s tendering readiness and indicative market benchmarks, that will help you build your strategy for Tender Excellence.
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Tags: Business Strategy
Key Insights of the Tender Market for the Pharmaceutical Industry in Europe
Cube RM
June 21, 2021
Discover more about the tendering market size and growth, countries’ and sectors’ dynamics and decision-making patterns, customer segmentation, and many other valuable insights, to leverage on your tendering strategy.
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Tags: Business Strategy
7 steps for success in Tender management
EPP Thought Leadership Series · Jul 29, 2019
July 29, 2019
Tendering is already a big and growing business affecting most industries and countries around the world. However, winning new public tenders is not a “free meal”. With more and more tenders using a combination of price and qualitative criteria and tenders being published on quite short notice, this is also a complex, rapidly changing, and highly demanding market.
This new white paper, published in the EPP Thought Leadership Series, describes the key challenges and seven steps for success in Tender management based on real-life evidence from the market.
Tags: Business Strategy, Digital Transformation, Innovation
Impact of culture on the development of countries
Forecasting Net
May 16, 2016
The quantitative impact of cultural traits on economic growth on a country level. In order to measure culture, in the sense of standard behaviors characteristic to the people of a certain country, we use the six dimensions first introduced by professor Geert Hofstede: Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, Uncertainty avoidance, Long term orientation, and Indulgence.
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Tags: Culture, Predictive Analytics, Social
What makes the economy tick - Part IV - US vs. USSR rivalry
Forecasting Net
June 15, 2015
Although the history and implications of the Cold War between the US and the USSR are well documented, it is still not quite clear why it ended up as it did, with the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and a clear win for the US.
Using a methodology presented in the recent post, “What makes our world and the economy tick?”, we will examine the US vs. USSR rivalry from a different perspective, by focusing on the progress made in the following key areas: Information flow, Transportation, Telecommunications, and Freedom of speech. This will help us identify the key competitive advantages of the two countries that-to a large extent-determined the outcome of this war.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
What makes the economy tick - Part III - Ancient Greece
Forecasting Net
February 14, 2015
The ancient Greek civilization emerged during the 8th century BC, almost out of nowhere, reaching a peak point in just three centuries, the Golden Age of Pericles in the 5th century BC that is still considered one of the most brilliant moments of human history.
Although the marvels of Ancient Greece are common knowledge today, it is still not quite clear what triggered this important period of development.
By using a methodology presented in the recent post, “What makes our world and the economy tick?”, we will explain the growth dynamics of ancient times based on the progress made in the following key areas: Information flow, Transportation, Telecommunications, and Freedom of speech.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
What makes our world and the economy tick? Part II: China vs. The West
Forecasting Net
September 17, 2014
China’s recent growth frenzy should not be a surprise. Its economy has been one of the largest in the world in the last two thousand years, reaching a peak point near the beginning of the 19th century, accounting for almost one third of the global economy at the time. However, by the mid-20th century the Chinese Empire and its economy collapsed to a mere 5% contribution to global GDP only to rise again after Deng Xiaoping assumed power in 1977. Key in understanding these economic cycles is the level of interaction of the Chinese economy, both inside and outside the country.
In this post, we will use the methodology presented in the recent post, “What makes our world and the economy tick?”, to explain China’s recent economic rise and also ascertain its future potential based on the progress made in the following key areas: Information flow, Transportation, Telecommunications, and Freedom of speech.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
What makes the economy tick
Forecasting Net
August 27, 2014
Although it is common knowledge that the development of the past 500 years is based on a series of important discoveries that helped shape our modern civilization, we still don’t understand exactly how innovation adds value to the economy and, even more, how to quantify this relationship. This post will shed some light to the relationship between innovation and economic growth and help us understand how our decisions and efforts today may influence our future!
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The rise and fall of modern empires: concluding report
Forecasting Net
January 12, 2014
“The rise and fall of modern empires” series, posted on a few selected LinkedIn groups, received thousands of insightful comments that inspired this concluding report to sum up the discussion and expand on China’s potential for future development.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The rise and fall of modern empires - Part IIIb
Forecasting Net
August 28, 2013
As we found out in Part I and Part II, although economic power has been shifting from the West to the East for many decades, income inequality still holds strong around the World. In Part IIIa we discovered what drives the economic growth of different regions and, now, in Part IIIb we do the same for the largest countries in the world. The outcome is quite surprising...
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The rise and fall of modern empires - Part IIIa
Forecasting Net
July 10, 2013
As we found out in Part I and Part II, although economic power has been shifting from the West to the East for many decades, income inequality, in terms of GDP per capita, still holds strong around the World. In Part IIIa we discover what drives the economic growth of different regions, population vs. income per capita improvement, and the outcome is quite surprising...
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
Predicting the growth of the Global Market
Forecasting Net
January 30, 2013
Successfully predicting the global market using a specialized econometric model, allowing for proactive, long-term planning. According to the forecast, based on the Interaction Systems’ model, global GDP is expected to almost double by the end of 2030, albeit with decelerating growth rates as we move toward the end of the forecast.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
The Future of Europe-GeoPolitica
GeoPolitica, www.geopolitic.ro, 2013 (1), p.249-253 · Jan 1, 2013
January 01, 2013
*This article is an adaptation of the original publication of the Forecasting Net blog
- www.forecastingnet.com - for the GeoPolitica journal. Follow the link to download both the original and adapted versions.
Contrary to popular belief that increased lending, first in the financial and corporate sector and then on a country level, is the key source of Europe’s problems, it turns out that this may be just the tip of the iceberg in a series of many structural problems, namely: reduced global influence, low growth, population ageing, reduced competitiveness against developing countries, increasing energy dependency, and loose coordination among participating countries. Overall, Europe is quickly losing momentum in the global economy, as it becomes more and more “yesterday’s news”. However, the solution may exist in what we call the “large” Europe scenario.
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Tags: International Relations, Social
The rise and fall of modern empires - Part II
Forecasting Net
March 14, 2012
As we found out in Part I, economic power has been shifting from the West to the East for many decades. In Part II we explore the dynamics of income inequality through the years. We discover that it still holds strong, as full convergence is far away, despite considerable improvements in narrowing the income gap, especially between Asia and the West.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
S-curves and their Applications in Marketing, Business, and the Economy
Alert! Magazine, Marketing Research Association, Vol. 52, No. 2, p.34-39 · Feb 1, 2012Alert! Magazine, Marketing Research Association, Vol. 52, No. 2
February 01, 2012
In this article, published in Marketing Research Association’s Alert! magazine, Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations Model, based on a simple s-curve, is explored as well as its numerous applications in marketing, business, and the economy. A case study of application to the global economy is offered as a proof of concept of the famous model.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Marketing, Predictive Analytics
The rise and fall of modern empires - Part I
Forecasting Net
October 01, 2011
Observe the shift of power from Western to Asian economies, in this "journey" of global economic dominance, starting after World War II all the way up to 2010. Find out why this is a long term trend and how we could have predicted it decades ago.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social
Predicting a Global Crisis
Forecasting Net
July 11, 2011
Successfully giving an early warning for the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Global Recession of 2009. The forecast performed before the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in 2008 and discovered an economic cycle and predicted the possibility of a crisis in our times of a magnitude similar to the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Global Depression & WWII in the 1930s.
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Tags: Business Strategy, Predictive Analytics, Social