Energy. The lifeblood of civilisation. The force that propels economies, lights up megacities, keeps your phone buzzing at 2 AM. And yet, the entire system—the backbone of modern life—is cracking, shifting, warping into something entirely new. Fossil fuels, the undisputed rulers of the past century, are on their way out. But are they leaving fast enough? That’s the billion, no, trillion-dollar question.

I just sat down with Jarand Rystad, Founder and CEO of Rystad Energy, a guy who doesn’t just observe the global energy chessboard—he helps define the moves. We ripped into the hard questions: Is the energy transition accelerating at a breakneck pace, or are we still stuck in second gear? Are policy missteps slowing progress? And crucially, do we have a chance in hell of outrunning climate catastrophe?

Spoiler alert: The energy revolution is in full swing. But momentum alone won’t save us. The stakes? Higher than ever. Wildfires torching landscapes. Supercharged storms rewriting coastlines. Energy markets seesawing in chaos. The transition isn’t some academic exercise—it’s the fulcrum upon which our collective future teeters.

Why This Shift Is Unstoppable

Conventional wisdom says the energy transition is a political affair—governments pushing green policies, activists waving placards. Nice story, but wrong. Economics is the real kingmaker. And the numbers? Staggering.

️ Solar & Wind: The Price Tag Tells the Story – Forget subsidies. Forget government mandates. In 2024, renewables are just…cheaper. Solar costs have imploded, free-falling by 81% between 2009-2019 and it has continued to fall precipitously year on year since (thanks, BloombergNEF). Wind isn’t far behind. This isn’t a “green” decision anymore. It’s a financial one.

️ Batteries: The Gamechanger That’s Already Here – Ten years ago, the idea of storing renewable power for later use felt like sci-fi. Now? Lithium-ion battery costs have nosedived by over 90% between 2010-2023 (IRENA says hello). Grid-scale storage is no longer theoretical—it’s happening.

️ Fossil Fuel Investing? A Sinking Ship – Once a safe bet, now a financial minefield. Oil and gas markets swing wildly, spooking investors—some of whom are doubling down on renewables, while others hesitate amid shifting political tides. BlackRock, Vanguard, and Wall Street’s biggest players had been making decisive moves into clean energy, but with the new U.S. administration recalibrating policies, some are slowing their green pivot, waiting to see how regulations shake out.

Jarand Rystad put it plainly: If climate change weren’t even a thing, the energy transition would still be happening. It’s simple—clean tech is cheaper, faster, smarter. But don’t pop the champagne yet. The road ahead? Riddled with potholes.

Three Colossal Roadblocks (And Why They Matter)

 China: Renewable Powerhouse or Coal Addict?

China is a paradox wrapped in a contradiction. In 2024 alone, they threw 357 GW of renewables onto the grid—more than the entire historical solar & wind capacity of the U.S. (around 310 GW, for context). But—and here’s the kicker—they’re still greenlighting new coal plants.

Why? Two words: Energy security. No country wants rolling blackouts. The problem isn’t building renewables; it’s making them reliable. Storage, grid flexibility, and high-voltage transmission lines are the missing pieces. And until those systems scale up, coal remains the crutch.

 Hydrogen & Carbon Capture: Savior or Overhyped Distraction?

Hydrogen sounds sexy, but let’s be real—it’s not powering your house or your EV. It’s expensive, inefficient, and, outside of industries like steel or aviation, it’s a square peg in a round hole. Electrification beats hydrogen in most scenarios. Every. Single. Time.

Carbon capture? More theory than practice. Sure, we can trap CO₂ from cement plants, but direct air capture is still a financial nightmare. Betting on carbon capture to save fossil fuels? Like trying to bail out a sinking ship with a leaky, cracked, coffee cup.

 AI & Data Centres: The Hidden Energy Guzzler

AI is rewriting industries, sure. But it’s also rewriting the global energy demand curve. By 2030, data centres could devour 8% of global electricity. That’s terrifying.

The solution? Smart AI (hello DeepSeek, or similar) that uses very little electricity itself, and optimises power use, grids running on renewables, and better hardware efficiency. Otherwise, AI’s rapid rise could backfire, slamming the brakes on emissions reductions elsewhere.

So What Needs to Happen—Yesterday?

️ Fossil Fuel Subsidies Need to Die – Governments are still dumping $7 trillion (yes, with a ‘T’) into fossil fuel subsidies (IMF stats). Imagine if even half of that went to renewables, storage, and transmission? Game over for coal and oil.

️ Investment Needs to Go Supersonic – We hit $1.8 trillion in clean energy investment in 2023. Sounds great? Not even close. The IEA says we need $4 trillion per year by 2030. That means doubling down—fast.

️ Grid Infrastructure Needs a Revolution – Renewables don’t work like fossil fuels. They’re intermittent, decentralised, and demand a smarter grid. We need better transmission lines (and optimized use of those lines), AI-driven power distribution, and massive battery deployments. This isn’t an option—it’s a requirement.

The Verdict? We’re Winning, But Not Fast Enough

Solar and wind are smashing fossil fuels on cost. China’s renewable buildout is staggering. Investors are funneling capital into clean energy like never before. But time is the one thing we don’t have. The 1.5°C climate goal? Almost out of reach. Global emissions? Still stubbornly high. And policy chaos? Threatens to slow everything down.

The next 10 years are make-or-break. The choices made right now will determine whether we head towards a livable future—or lock in climate chaos for generations.

Want the full deep dive? Listen to my full conversation with Jarand Rystad.

What’s your take? Are we sprinting fast enough—or still crawling towards the finish line? Drop your thoughts in the comments.

Article first published on TomRaftery.com. Photo credit Wayne S. Grazio on Flickr

By Tom Raftery

Keywords: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability

Follow Us On