Michael J Keegan

In today’s world, uncertainty is not an occasional storm but a persistent climate. Leaders across sectors face a barrage of disruption, pandemics, cyberattacks, and supply chain breakdowns—that demand swift, resilient decision-making. The IBM Center for The Business of Government report, Preparing Governments for Future Shocks: A Roadmap to Resilience, illustrates the realities of leading through such volatility, highlighting the need for networked, agile, and innovative responses to complex challenges.

Recently, I read Cheryl Strauss Einhorn’s Harvard Business Review article, In Uncertain Times, Ask These Questions Before You Make a Decision, which offers a powerful framework of four strategic questions to navigate this “perma-crisis” landscape. These questions help leaders cut through noise, avoid reactive traps, and make choices that endure. By integrating Einhorn’s questions with the IBM report’s imperatives, government executives can enhance their ability to lead effectively through uncertainty, fostering resilient outcomes.

This essay explores how Einhorn’s questions can be used to navigate uncertainty, offering actionable insights for government leaders striving to thrive in uncertain times.

The Perma-Crisis Reality

The IBM Center report paints a vivid picture of today’s volatile environment, where “shocks”—disruptive regional or global events like wildfires, cyberattacks, or pandemics—transcend boundaries and stress governments, businesses, and communities. A 2023 IBM survey of 635 government executives found that 60% expect these shocks to grow more frequent, and 70% anticipate greater intensity. The report’s eight imperatives, from building governance networks to investing in agile innovation, underscore that siloed, reactive approaches are inadequate. Instead, leaders must foster collaboration across sectors, leverage data and AI, and prioritize public trust to build resilience.

Einhorn’s article complements this by addressing the decision-making paralysis that volatility can induce. Traditional questions—What’s the ROI? What’s the timeline?—often narrow focus too soon, locking leaders into outdated assumptions. Her four questions, designed to expand perspective and spark creativity, are particularly relevant for navigating the systemic disruptions the IBM Center report describes.

Below, each question is explored as a tool for leaders, with examples drawn from the report to illustrate their practical impact in a crisis-prone world.

Question 1: What Decision Today Will Still Make Sense a Year from Now?

Einhorn’s first question urges leaders to prioritize decisions with lasting value, resisting the pull of short-term fixes. In a crisis, the pressure to act quickly can lead to choices that solve immediate problems but create future vulnerabilities. This question injects long-term thinking into chaotic moments, ensuring alignment with core values and strategic goals. The IBM Center report illustrates this challenge in its discussion of supply chain disruptions, a common shock that tests resilience. For instance, a government agency facing delayed medical supply deliveries might be tempted to double down on a struggling vendor for quick relief.

Einhorn’s question prompts a broader view: Will this decision hold up in a year? Preparing Governments for Future Shocks: A Roadmap to Resilience emphasis on building a Center of Excellence (CoE) for supply chain resilience offers a solution. By creating a multi-agency hub with private sector and academic partners, leaders can map supply chains using AI-driven analytics, ensuring robust sourcing strategies that withstand future disruptions. This mirrors Einhorn’s example of Alana, a consumer brand leader who preserved sustainability initiatives despite cost-cutting pressures, balancing immediate needs with long-term brand identity.

Practical Takeaway: Leaders should use scenario planning to test decisions against potential future shocks, such as disasters or cyberattacks. By asking, “What values do we want this decision to reflect?” they can align choices with resilience goals, as the Center report advocates through its call for proactive risk management.

Question 2: If a Year from Now This Decision Was Used as an Example of Our Leadership, What Would It Teach?

This question shifts focus to the narrative a decision creates, asking leaders to consider the legacy their choices leave. It’s not just about outcomes but about what decisions say about character, priorities, and culture.

In a world where trust in institutions is eroding, as the Center report notes via the Edelman Trust Barometer’s findings, this question is a strategic tool for building credibility.

Preparing Governments for Future Shocks: A Roadmap to Resilience highlights the importance of public participation and communication to counter distrust, especially during climate disasters. Consider a city official deciding whether to enforce a mandatory evacuation in a flood-prone, low-income area. The legal case is clear, but community fears of displacement loom large. Einhorn’s question—What would this decision teach about our leadership?—prompts a human-centered approach. The Center report suggests engaging trusted community voices to communicate risks, avoiding “maladaptation” where poorly planned responses increase vulnerabilities. By involving local leaders to co-design an evacuation plan that addresses financial and medical barriers, the official not only mitigates the crisis but also models inclusive leadership, much like Einhorn’s example of Raj, who delayed a product launch to prioritize ethical data practices, earning trust and respect.

Practical Takeaway: Leaders should integrate stakeholder input into decisions, using town halls or digital platforms to ensure diverse voices shape outcomes. This builds trust and reinforces a leadership legacy of integrity, aligning with the Center’s report call for inclusive planning.

Question 3: What If This Isn’t the Storm—What If It’s the Climate?

Einhorn’s third question challenges the instinct to treat disruptions as temporary, urging leaders to prepare for persistent volatility. This reframing is critical in a world where shocks are not anomalies but part of the systemic “climate,” as the Center’s report survey data confirms with expectations of escalating crises.

The IBM Center report, Preparing Governments for Future Shocks: A Roadmap to Resilience, focuses on crosscutting shocks, like recurring cyberattacks, illustrates this reality. A government IT department facing repeated data breaches might initially patch systems reactively, hoping for a return to stability. Einhorn’s question—What if this is the new normal?—prompts a strategic shift. Our report advocates for a whole-of-government approach, including cross-agency collaboration and AI-enhanced cybersecurity frameworks. By investing in a CoE that coordinates federal, state, and private sector efforts, leaders can build systems that flex under pressure, not snap. This echoes Einhorn’s example of Darryl, who recognized a vendor’s persistent failures as a structural issue, launching a dual-track plan to onboard a new supplier while giving the existing one a final chance to improve.

Practical Takeaway: Leaders should conduct regular wargaming exercises to anticipate ongoing shocks, as the Center report suggests. By mapping interdependencies across sectors, they can design enduring systems, ensuring resilience against chronic uncertainty.

Question 4: What’s the Cost of Waiting?

Einhorn’s final question confronts the hidden risks of inaction, challenging leaders to act despite incomplete data. In volatile environments, waiting for certainty can forfeit momentum, market position, or public confidence.

Consider a public health agency debating whether to adopt AI for predicting disease outbreaks. Budget constraints and ethical concerns might encourage delays. Einhorn’s question—What’s the cost of waiting?—highlights the risks: slower responses, strained resources, and eroded trust. The Center report cites generative AI’s potential to optimize emergency responses by analyzing vast datasets, enabling faster resource allocation. By piloting an AI system with built-in safeguards, the agency could act decisively, mirroring Einhorn’s example of Monica, who hired a marketing officer during economic uncertainty, reimagining compensation to align with strategic goals.

Practical Takeaway: Leaders should launch agile pilot programs to test innovations. Pre-crisis data strategies, like those recommended for data-driven decision-making, ensure informed action, minimizing the costs of hesitation.

A Unified Approach to Resilient Leadership.

Einhorn’s four questions form a cohesive framework for leading through uncertainty, each addressing a critical dimension of decision-making:

• Durability ensures decisions withstand future shocks, aligning with the IBM Center report’s call for proactive risk management.
• Legacy builds trust through inclusive choices, supporting the Center report’s emphasis on public engagement.
• Systemic Thinkingprepares for persistent volatility, echoing the report’s call for crosscutting strategies.
• Urgency drives timely action, complementing the report’s push for agile innovation.

The Center's report focus on workforce development further ties these questions together, as a skilled, adaptable workforce is essential for executing resilient decisions. With government leaders planning to shift investments toward AI in five years, upskilling employees to leverage technology is critical, ensuring the human capital to act on Einhorn’s insights.

Implementing Einhorn’s Framework

To apply Einhorn’s questions in practice, leaders can take these steps:

• Embed Questions in Planning: Train teams to use Einhorn’s questions during strategic discussions, ensuring decisions balance short- and long-term goals.
• Leverage Technology: Use AI and data analytics to model decision outcomes, as the IBM report suggests, supporting Questions 1 and 3.
• Engage Communities: Host inclusive forums to gather input, aligning with Question 2’s focus on leadership legacy.
• Pilot Innovations: Test solutions rapidly to address Question 4, minimizing inaction costs.
• Upskill Teams: Invest in training to ensure employees can implement data-driven, resilient decisions.

Conclusion: Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

Government executives navigating future shocks cannot rely on outdated assumptions or siloed responses. The IBM Center report, Preparing Governments for Future Shocks: A Roadmap to Resilience depicts escalating shocks that underscore the need for adaptive, collaborative leadership. The report’s eight imperatives provide a roadmap for resilience, emphasizing networked governance, agile innovation, and inclusive communication. Einhorn’s four questions, outlined in her HBR article, complement this by offering a decision-making lens that balances urgency with foresight, reactivity with strategy, and isolation with collaboration.

By asking what decisions will endure, what legacy they create, whether disruptions are systemic, and what inaction costs, leaders can transform uncertainty into opportunity.

As Einhorn reminds us, strategic decision-making isn’t about having all the answers: it’s about asking the right questions to forge a resilient future.  In a perma-crisis world, strategic questioning is not just a tool—it’s a leadership imperative.

True and False: Heresy and Common Sense for the Actor by David Mamet, the award-winning director, playwright, filmmaker, and author, is a bold and insightful book that challenges conventional wisdom in the acting world. While it’s a guide for actors, the book offers profound lessons that can be applied to leadership in various contexts. For Mamet acting isn’t simply about pretending; it is at its core – an act of truth-telling much like leadership.

This blog post explores these leadership lessons and how they can be used to foster a better understanding of leading people and teams. In many of the italicized quotes shared in this piece one can easily replace the word actor with leader and find real insight good leaders can apply.

Simplicity is Key

Mamet’s philosophy in "True and False" centers around simplicity and focus. He advocates for a straightforward approach to acting, without overcomplicating or overthinking the process.

“The actor is onstage to communicate the play to the audience. That is the beginning and the end of the actor’s job. They don’t need to “become” the character. There is no character. There are only lines on a page. There are lines of dialogue meant to be said by the actor. When they say them simply, in an attempt to achieve an object more or less like that suggested by the author, the audience sees an illusion of a character upon a stage.”

Leaders can apply this lesson by simplifying processes and communication within their organizations. Overly complex procedures and jargon can confuse team members, leading to inefficiency and miscommunication. By simplifying and focusing on the essentials, leaders can ensure that everyone is on the same page and understands the goals and objectives. By cutting through complexity and staying grounded in basic principles, leaders can guide their teams more effectively.

Trust Your Instincts

Mamet encourages actors to trust their instincts rather than relying solely on technical skills or over rehearsed techniques. This lesson is crucial for leaders as well. While it's important to have knowledge and expertise, true leadership often comes from trusting your intuition. Leaders who rely on their instincts can make decisions more confidently and encourage their teams to do the same. This creates a culture of empowerment, where individuals feel valued for their unique perspectives.

"The actor, in learning to be true and simple, in learning to speak to the point despite being frightened, and with no certainty of being understood, creates his own character; he forges character in himself."

Embrace Authenticity

Mamet champions authenticity in acting, emphasizing that the best performances come from being genuine rather than imitating others. Authenticity builds trust and credibility with team members, fostering a culture of integrity. When leaders are authentic, they build trust and rapport with their teams. This authenticity fosters loyalty and encourages employees to bring their whole selves to work, leading to greater creativity and innovation.

“You are not one of the myriad of interchangeable pieces, but a unique human being, and if you’re got something to say; say it and think well of yourself while you’re learning to say it better.”

Resist Over-Rehearsal

In the book, Mamet argues that over-rehearsing can lead to a loss of spontaneity and freshness in acting. For leaders, this translates into not over-planning or micromanaging. Leaders who resist the urge to control every detail allow for spontaneity and creativity to flourish within their teams. This flexibility can lead to innovative solutions and a more dynamic work environment.

Focus on the Objective

Mamet stresses the importance of having a clear objective when acting. This focus helps actors stay grounded and connected to their role, their lines. Similarly, leaders should always have a clear vision for their teams. When everyone understands the objective, it's easier to work towards a common goal. This clarity aligns the team and drives collective action, reducing confusion and increasing productivity.

“To deny nothing, inventing nothing, accept everything, and get on with it.”

Encourage Collaboration

Mamet believes that acting is a collaborative art form, where the best outcomes are achieved through teamwork. Leaders can take this lesson to heart by fostering a collaborative culture within their organizations. By encouraging teamwork and open communication, leaders create an environment where diverse perspectives can be shared freely, leading to better problem-solving and, and stronger team dynamics.

Learn from Failure

In "True and False," Mamet acknowledges that failure is part of the process. He encourages actors to embrace failure as a learning opportunity. Leaders can apply this lesson by creating a culture where failure is not stigmatized but seen as a stepping-stone to success. By embracing failure, leaders foster resilience and encourage their teams to take risks, knowing that setbacks are part of the journey toward growth and improvement.

“Let us learn acceptance. This is one of the greatest tools an actor can have. The capacity to accept to wish things to happen as they do It is the root of all happiness in life, and it is the root of wisdom for an actor. Acceptance. The capacity to accept derives from the will and the will is the source of character.”

Value Discipline and Work Ethic

Mamet emphasizes the importance of discipline and a strong work ethic in acting. Leaders can draw from this lesson by instilling discipline within their teams. This doesn't mean being overly strict, but rather fostering a sense of commitment and responsibility. Leaders who set high standards and lead by example inspire their teams to work diligently toward achieving their goals.

“The challenge is to open the mouth, stand straight, and say the words bravely – adding nothing, denying nothing, and without the intent to manipulate anyone.  To learn to do that is to learn to act.”

Respect for the Craft

Mamet's respect for the craft of acting translates to the importance of respecting the expertise and experience of others. Leaders who respect their team's skills and provide them with the necessary resources and autonomy are more likely to build a motivated and engaged workforce.

“Like sports, the study of acting consists in the main of getting out of one’s own way and in learning to deal with uncertainty and being comfortable being uncomfortable.”

Be Courageous

Finally, Mamet's bold approach to challenging established norms in acting demonstrates courage. Leaders can take this lesson to heart by being willing to challenge the status quo and make bold decisions. Courageous leaders inspire others and drive change within their organizations, fostering a culture of innovation and continuous improvement.

“The simple performance of the great deed is called heroism. The person who will not be swayed who perseveres no matter what – that hero has the capacity to inspire us, to suggest that we reexamine our self-imposed limitations and try again.”

In summary, True and False: Heresy and Common Sense for the Actor by David Mamet offers a wealth of lessons for leaders. By embracing simplicity, authenticity, and collaboration, leaders can build strong, dynamic teams and foster a culture of trust, creativity, and continuous improvement. Trusting instincts, resisting over-rehearsal, and encouraging courage can further enhance a leader's ability to guide their teams successfully. By applying these principles, leaders can inspire their teams to achieve greatness and foster a culture of innovation and growth.