Jasenka Rapajic

Questioning the Future of Disruptive Air Travel
Jasenka Rapajic
January 10, 2025

Who truly owns reports on flight delays? Their impact ripples across passengers, airlines, airports, and the industry as a whole - but who are these reports actually meant to serve, and why do they often lack clear accountability?

Drawing on insights I shared years ago, I revisit this critical topic to ask: Are things getting worse? And if they are, how might their effects on passengers shape the future of air travel?

Join me as we dig deeper into an issue that holds undeniable influence over the future of the airline industry.

Redefining The Future of Flying
Beyond Airline Disruptions
October 03, 2024

Exciting times: Elon Musk has officiaĺy introduced Tesla, the first electric airplane. We can now more clearly envision the future of flying and also challenges ahead to make it possible.

Planning: From Assumptions Through Disruptions To Validated Learning
Beyond Disruptions Blogs
April 14, 2024

Too many assumptions lead to too many disruptions. We tend to make company's plans look smoother and prettier, always including our desires to do things better. They last up until the company undergo the test of reality. This is the time when wrong assumptions become visible, leading to bumpier road ahead and to less control over the outcomes expressed through cost, profit, and other performance metrics.

It's Time To Rethink The Airline Pricing Mechanism
Jasenka Rapajic
March 14, 2024

Traditional airline pricing is mostly associated with stationary class differentiation based mainly on seat comfort, availability of food service, baggage allowances, or flight rescheduling.

They don’t take into account the growing disruptiveness of air travel, especially at busiest airports. Just

Questioning efficiency measures
LinkedIn
August 29, 2023

A Different Future Is Coming into View for the Airline Industry. A Time for Airlines and Investors to Get Ready!
Beyond Airline Disruptions
April 02, 2023

I recently attended the 'Investing in Aviation - Europe' conference organized by Ishka, where investors and airlines met to discuss the challenges of creating a more sustainable future for the aviation industry. The conference provided an engaging opportunity to hear from leading institutional investors and airline executives on their perspectives and strategies.

The Role of Feelings in Shaping Business Success
Beyond Disruptions Blogs
December 11, 2022

In business, when we talk about change we associate it with change in form, in things we can measure, and ultimately with monetary value. But change is much more than that.

Can Social Media Help Airlines Better Understand Passenger Experience?
Beyond Disruptions Blog
August 20, 2022

You may remember the story about a passenger, a professional musician Dave Carroll who was denied compensation for his broken guitar. He put in some effort to make his case published on social networks and managed to artfully break the seemingly unbreakable wall of denial set by the airline's Customer Service.

It takes brave leadership to get an airline or an airport out of crisis
Jasenka Rapajic
July 06, 2022

Airlines are trapped in a system that has no future and need to find the way out themselves. In such a complex and dynamic industry, looking at disruptions as strategic misalignment between plans and reality is a natural way forward, even if it may be uncomfortable for some. If approached wisely, disruptions can reveal systemic pain points that should be taken as a call for change.

What Overambitious Airline Planning Has To Do With Crew Shortages And What Can Be Done To Make Things Better
Astute Aviation Consulting
June 21, 2022

The real reasons behind crew shortages we have been seeing over the last few months run much deeper than those associated with the pandemic. In what follows, we will focus on a fundamentally important but commonly misunderstood root cause of crewing problems: the disconnect between strategy and operations.

How to align operational and system performance to offer better service at lower cost?
The Media Bulletin (TMB)
October 08, 2021

Times are hard for the airline industry. And yet, among the many challenges lies an opportunity to ask hard questions about ourselves and about people we serve and work with, to dig deeper into what it is we can do to improve things that matter to us.

Unpredictable market recovery, combined with inherent, hard-to-control business complexities, have put leaders and strategists under enormous pressure to find ways to keep their businesses afloat.

How To Align Operational And System Performance To Offer Better Service At Lower Cost
The Media Bulletin
October 08, 2021

I felt honoured to be invited to write an article for The Media Bulletin. I chose the much talked about subject of the disconnect between strategy and operations. Despite so many great ideas circling around for decades, there are little signs of putting them successfully into practice, especially in complex and dynamic organisations like airlines. The reason: generic ideas need to be accompanied with workable specifics of each organisation and problems they are facing in real life.

In this article I described some specifics including hints about the framework for connected decision making in airline organisations aimed at providing better service at lower cost.

I hope that the example of relational action map based on the real life problem seen from different perspectives will inspire you to start thinking differently about the misalignments between strategy and operations and that it will get you closer to solutions that best fit the needs of your organisation.

We Have To Plan For Disruptions
Jasenka Rapajic
July 16, 2021

Air travel disruptions are here to stay and may take many different forms. So, we have to plan for disruptions.

To Merge, Or Not To Merge, That Is The Question
Jasenka Rapajic
February 26, 2021

While decisions about whether or not airline mergers are an existential necessity are still in the air, it's time to take a deeper look at their shadow side, to understand how they touch the lives of employees and passengers, and what is their impact on cost and service quality.

What It Needs To Align Strategies With Operational Capabilities And Why It Is Important
Jasenka Rapajic
February 03, 2021

Leaders and strategists are faced with an ultimate challenge: how much, when, and where to start increasing operation at time of extreme uncertainty and growing indebtedness.
There will be lots of experimenting and testing and with it a high dependency on operational feedback to validate such decisions and act swiftly to avoid prolonged exposure to losses.

Which diagnostic approach and tool do you use to determine the state of health of your organisation? Are you a specialist or a Sage?
Jasenka Rapajic
January 30, 2021

Whenever faced with a hard-to-answer question, I look for analogies. In this case I found the following quote from Fritjof Capra's book 'The Turning Point' inspirational and would like to share it with you.

What Airline Passengers Really Want
Jasenka Rapajic
January 22, 2021

It is obviously not easy to understand what passengers really want if airlines cannot guarantee that their flight will depart on time and that they won’t arrive to their destination overstressed, no matter the price they paid for their journey.

Is it better having a big bag of dots or a handful of insights?
Jasenka Rapajic
January 06, 2021

Choosing which way to go once market starts recovering will be a tricky business. Old habits of collecting data from disconnected sources and interpreting them subjectively won’t work this time. We are entering the era insights needed to connect and interpret the data as objectively as possible while narrowing the focus on things that matter.

Airline Leadership: The Way Forward
LinkedIn
January 04, 2021

It is now certain that things we cannot control will take some time to settle. As much as it is not easy to live with uncertainty, this time gap is giving us an opportunity to adapt to new ways of thinking about our work. As we have already experienced, the way we used to define strategies, to plan and make decisions, will no longer work. We are dependent on feedback from the real world for which we found ourselves unprepared.

The Way Forward
Jasenka Rapajic, Astute Aviation
December 30, 2020

It is now certain that things we cannot control will take some time to settle. As much as it is not easy to live with uncertainty, this time gap is giving us an opportunity to adapt to new ways of thinking about our work. As we have already experienced, the way we used to define strategies, to plan and make decisions will no longer work. We are dependent on feedback from the real world for which we found ourselves unprepared.

The thing is that we have to find our own way out of this crisis. There is a lot of great advice around on what and why we need to change. But what is really missing is HOW to do that amidst the heightened state of uncertainty and complexity that have, to a lesser extent, always been a part of the airline business. So, the question is how to build a more resilient organisation that can survive the forthcoming adversities?

The answer is actually relatively simple...

Furloughs and Layoffs - the Southwest Airlines Way
Beyond Airline Disruptions
October 07, 2020

Gary Kelly, chairman and CEO of Southwest Airlines Co., outlined steps Monday the company plans to take in attempt to prevent furloughs and layoffs through 2021.

Back in July, Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) committed to no furloughs or layoffs through the end of 2020. The fate of the Southwest's employees beyond this year was unknown...

'The Pike Syndrome' Revisited
Jasenka Rapajic
October 04, 2020

A dark cloud is hanging over the airline industry. 'Extreme uncertainty' coupled with 'complexity' have become words that keep many paralyzed and even content with old habits that offer them security, however false.

Risk vs Uncertainty and How to Make Better Predictions
Blog Beyond Airline Disruptions
September 27, 2020

When faced with unprecedented uncertainty, we need to find ways to make our predictions more reliable. This assumes understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty. Companies that can make this distinction usually perform better than others. In practical terms, they are more capable of narrowing the gap between plans and reality and can tolerate uncertainty with greater ease.

So what is the difference between risk and uncertainty?

I am reposting my blog published in 2014 because it is more relevant today than at time when it was originally written.

A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making
Jasenka Rapajic
August 30, 2020

If you are a leader at any level struggling to understand why your best intended decisions don’t work as expected, the chances are that you are mixing up the contexts in which you are making these decisions.

You certainly know that your actions depend on the situation, and that you can make better decisions by adapting your approach to changing circumstances. The question is which approach to use in a particular situation to avoid making the wrong decision when faced with systemic complexity and extreme uncertainty?

What can be learned from the sustainable success of Southwest Airlines that retained its superior investment-grade ratings in times of extreme uncertainty
Jasenka Rapajic
August 19, 2020

Southwest Airlines, Ryanair, and easyJet are the only three airlines that retained investment-grade ratings from S&P Global Ratings, after the credit rating agency downgraded a host of carriers and slowed the pace of its air travel recovery forecast. In a report published last week, S&P analysts said that superior ratings come from the low-cost model, “robust liquidity”, and greater relative exposure to healthier short-haul and leisure markets.

What these kind of ratings don’t tell us is that the superior ratings come mostly from immeasurable values which are beyond hard facts, things that drive sustainable growth and success, like leadership, culture, relationships with employees and passengers.

This is what the unwavering success of Southwest is made of. Unlike any other airline, it has been profitable every single year between 1972 and 2019, and this year it tops the league of the most successful airlines in times of extreme uncertainty.

Let's share some powerful insights of Herb Kelleher, ex CEO and co-founder of Southwest Airlines...

Beyond Airline Disruptions - Thinking and Managing Anew
Routledge, Taylor & Francis
December 14, 2018

Flight disruptions continue to thrive unnoticed, invisibly eroding airline profitability and causing growing passenger dissatisfaction. This is especially critical at airports where traffic expansion outstrips airport capacities. Hampered by legacy information systems, management practices and organisational detachments, decision makers across the industry have little or no understanding of the multiple causes of disruptions and their implications. Consequently, their actions are focused on resolving local problems without being synchronised at system level. As problematic as they are, disruptions create opportunities for learning about system interactions, a solid and appropriate foundation for resolving complex industry issues.

Beyond Airline Disruptions explains how airlines can become more competitive by utilising unexplored potential for gradual, consistent and measurable improvements, centred around cost and quality of operational performance. It describes practical methods and techniques essential for turning these ideas into daily practices.

This second, revised edition features updated content that introduces a fresh approach to airline management and decision making, more in line with future industry needs. It bridges the gaps between strategy and operations and inspires collaboration between airlines, airports, ATC, service providers and regulators to bring longer-lasting benefits not only for industry participants and passengers, but also for the economy, society and the environment.

Beyond Airline Disruptions Thinking and Managing Anew, 2nd Edition
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
December 14, 1998

Flight disruptions continue to thrive unnoticed, invisibly eroding airline profitability and causing growing passenger dissatisfaction. This is especially critical at airports where traffic expansion outstrips airport capacities. Hampered by legacy information systems, management practices and organisational detachments, decision makers across the industry have little or no understanding of the multiple causes of disruptions and their implications. Consequently, their actions are focused on resolving local problems without being synchronised at system level. As problematic as they are, disruptions create opportunities for learning about system interactions, a solid and appropriate foundation for resolving complex industry issues.

Beyond Airline Disruptions explains how airlines can become more competitive by utilising unexplored potential for gradual, consistent and measurable improvements, centred around cost and quality of operational performance. It describes practical methods and techniques essential for turning these ideas into daily practices.

This second, revised edition features updated content that introduces a fresh approach to airline management and decision making, more in line with future industry needs. It bridges the gaps between strategy and operations and inspires collaboration between airlines, airports, ATC, service providers and regulators to bring longer-lasting benefits not only for industry participants and passengers, but also for the economy, society and the environment.

Cutting Through Complexity: A Practical Guide for Connected Decision-Making
Author
July 21, 2023

If we are to point to the most critical problem airlines are facing today, it would be capability to bridge the gap between strategy and operations. Lots have been written and talked about it at conceptual level. Here, you can learn how to do it in practice, supported by Systemic Reality Check. This is the
integrative approach to decision-making that fosters a transparent work culture of giving and receiving consistent feedback. It promotes healthy communication among specialists, generalists, and people who lead them, and encourages collective actions across many boundaries to achieve a shared purpose.

Leading Through Complexity: A Practical Framework for Connected Decision Making in the Airline Industry
Jasenka Rapajic
July 05, 2023

One of the topics that regularly comes up while talking to airline leaders is the gap in communication between leaders responsible for creating strategy, and people responsible for its implementation. Without a shared understanding of the complexities that arise from the interactions between data, people, and processes across the organisation, leaders cannot reach the crucial stage of connected decision-making. Starting with a real-life example of a complex disruption event the article describes a process of Systemic Reality Check set to fine-tune strategy by learning from operational disruptions.

Astute Aviation
A S T U T E A V I A T I O N
January 02, 2007

​I am Jasenka Rapajic, founder of Astute Aviation with diverse, hands-on experience spanning strategic, network, schedule, and operations planning, gained within network, low cost and charter airlines and within an airline software company. My quest for creating closer links between strategy and operations inspired me to found an airline software company (winner of UK Department of Trade and Industry SMART award for innovation) and write a book 'Beyond Airline Disruptions - 1st edition' and 'Beyond Airline Disruptions - Thinking and Managing Anew, 2nd edition'. I blog at 'Beyond Airline Disruptions'.

Connect and Collaborate to Disrupt Disruptions
IBS Software
August 04, 2020

The profile of operational disruptions is changing. This time they are dominated by frequent strategic adjustments resulting in unknown, yet avoidable losses generated by slow and often less than appropriate response to changes in market demand. So far, the way we used to connect and collaborate to reduce disruptions haven't been successful and this needs to change.

The question is, how can we reinvent collaboration and become the co-creators of the new connected, resilient organisation where strategy and operations become closely linked? What is the role of people and technology in making this happen?

Connect and Collaborate to Disrupt Disruptions
IBS Software
April 08, 2020

I was talking about how we can better connect and collaborate to disrupt both strategic and operational disruptions. I sincerely thank Daniel for the opportunity.

I explained what it takes to establish the missing links between strategy and operations, the process that engages people from around organisation to resolve the complex, real-life problems, and a new role of technology to make this happen.

The process revolves around Opportunity Scanning technique that combines near real time data and insights essential for validating strategies. It also helps with understanding the emerging patterns that need concerted action to prevent avoidable losses.

Connect and Collaborate to Disrupt Disruptions
Astute Aviation Consulting
July 27, 2020

The profile of operational disruptions is changing. This time they are dominated by frequent strategic adjustments resulting in unknown, yet avoidable losses generated by slow and often less than appropriate response to changes in market demand. So far, the way we used to connect and collaborate to reduce disruptions haven't been successful and this needs to change.

The question is, how can we reinvent collaboration and become the co-creators of the new connected, resilient organisation where strategy and operations become closely linked? What is the role of people and technology in making this happen?

The future of work will be about creating a connected company where people, processes and technology work in sync, always aware of their impact on the external environment.

A good relationship between leaders and employees will be crucial because it is the people who can minimise the undesired consequences of imperfect strategies if they are inspired and motivated to do so. As for the improvement, their collective feedback will be indispensable as will be the support of technology.

Planning: From Assumptions Through Disruptions to Validated Learning
Thinkers360
June 13, 2023

How good are our company plans? What kind of assumptions do we make and what happens when they meet reality?

The reference points for every budget year are:
· Assumptions derived from past performance
· Assumptions about things that may impact our company performance in the coming year
· Assumptions about costs
· Assumptions about revenue
· Assumptions about profit
· Assumptions about passenger numbers
· Assumptions about….
 
Too many assumptions lead to too many disruptions.
 
We tend to make company plans look smoother and prettier, with the desire to do things better. And then comes the time when these assumptions undergo the test of reality. This is when misfits become visible, leading to a bumpier road ahead and less control over the outcomes expressed through cost, profit, and other performance metrics.
 
The majority of airlines miss this unique opportunity for learning. The paths of lean airlines with simpler business models are less bumpy. They have easier access to reality, enabling them to learn what works for them and what doesn't.
 
Traditional airlines, however, are heavier, trapped in once successful but now hard-to-control business models accompanied by rising complexities. This makes them more susceptible to unexpected losses caused by even the smallest challenges.
 
Can we reduce the number of assumptions and flatten the road ahead?
 
Yes, we can if we embrace the practice of validated learning and:
 
· Start thinking afresh
· Become open to learning on the go
· Start testing assumptions in an organised way, focusing on the biggest deviations from the flat lines
 
Validated learning is an invaluable technique, especially in the age of uncertainty. Instead of bouncing back, we can consider bouncing forward.

This is how improvement happens.

The Connected Airline: Rising Above Complexity
Thinkers360
May 16, 2021

In times of unprecedented uncertainty, airline leaders find it hard to adapt to the new circumstances. To survive the crisis, airlines need new approaches that will make strategy and operations work in sync. Pandemic caused reduction in airline activities have created an opportunity to lay the foundation for a more adaptable, resilient organisation, conscious of complexities and its own capabilities to sustain forthcoming challenges.  

Making the most of this opportunity requires a shift in perception of what planning and strategizing is about, with focus leaning towards emergent, context-related problems. It requires rising above limitations imposed by organisational structures and management practices and engaging collective intelligence when making decisions that require constant adjustments in a continuously changing environment. 

If we can create a space, a platform where people around the airline can continually find ways to improve locally whilst being keenly aware of the company's goals, we will improve the odds of our airlines thriving in good and in difficult times. Along the way, much will be learnt - mostly from experience.

As Eric Ries said, under conditions of high uncertainty, learning is the most vital function. We must learn the truth about which elements of our strategy are working, and which are not. This is more to the point, more accurate and faster than classical business planning. 

The question is, what does it take to bring this new process to life?  

On practice

Due to its dynamic nature, the work on system improvement has to take place on neutral territory, a space through which information about system dysfunctions can flow naturally, creating the feeling of connectedness and belonging. This neutral platform engages the whole organisation. People gather to resolve problems experienced in real life, seen from different perspectives. In doing this, they develop a deeper understanding of their shared purpose – to serve passengers and improve their experience - no matter how far from the passengers their work may seem to be.  This is not about who, but what has caused the system to underperform, which eliminates the blame culture. 

This approach requires a shift in management attention: from looking at sum totals and averages of disconnected financial and operational data that only surface the problem areas, to understanding the underlying causes of things that didn’t work as expected. This is an essential prerequisite for narrowing the gap between what we wanted to achieve and what we actually delivered. 

On process

There are two essential steps for making this process effective. 

Firstly, we have to narrow the focus onto the most disruptive events – usually ones that disproportionately ripple across the network. They are often hidden behind ‘reactionary causes’ dissociated from their origins, those that have the highest impact on cost and passenger experience.

Secondly, we need to identify intangible causes of these events guided by narratives of people involved in the processes – starting with operations control and then, depending on the situation, involving operations planners, ground services, service suppliers, scheduling, network, strategic and commercial planners, customer relations or other relevant functions.

Identifying the multiple, interrelated causes is the most important stage in this process. It makes the interconnections between data, people and processes visible and measurable and reveals the bottlenecks in the flow of work and information.

Successful outcome of these collaborative gatherings depends on skilled facilitators, ‘boundary-spanners’ – people with multidisciplinary knowledge and diverse experiences who are able to move freely between operations and senior management, translating the requirements of each into a language and behaviour that is acceptable to, and understandable by the others. The role of a facilitator is to establish ‘experience bridges’ that link people, information and process, and accelerate progress through the development of a shared understanding of problems affecting the overall performance. 

Each of the collaborative gatherings organised by boundary-spanners results in a call to action presented in relational action maps where interdependencies between departments and flow of work become visible and easier to understand and revisit while measuring progress. This process can be described as an initial phase of transition towards a new breed of organisation, where work flows naturally and flaws are easy to notice and act upon at early stages. This is the way towards truly adaptive organisations.

On new role of technology 

The whole process is dependent on the use of the right technology. 

The innovative role of technology is to ease the access to information resulting from numerous interactions by visualising the results. Spotting the pain points in need of action, and monitoring progress in such a complex context are challenges beyond the capability of a single human mind.

Current perception of the role of technology focuses on serving individual functions. Here, the technology company doesn’t just sell the “product” - the software - but service.

To make the most of technology, experts on both sides need to work together for as long as necessary to make sure that this new integrative process works successfully. 

On culture

What is important here is that the whole process changes culture, which is the most complex issue of all, most difficult to influence, and is a crucial part of an airlines’ success or failure. It is a culture of connectedness, feeling of belonging and taking part in contributing to reaching the higher goals.

Before he co-founded the Southwest Airlines, the most successful airline in history, Herb Kelleher asked himself: ‘What if you could build a company that is as human as the human beings in it? What if you could create a culture that inspires passionate people to come to work fully awake, fully engaged, firing on all cylinders because they know they are doing epic work?’ He went on to make this a reality. 

There are no recipes, but you can give this a try.

Post-COVID transformation in strategic planning and decison making in airline industry

Location: London, UK or virtual    Fees: Per request

Service Type: Service Offered

Help airlines and transportation companies to introduce the Reality Check phase and Opportunity Scans technique during strategic and planning processes adjusted for the post-COVID world. This inspires systems thinking at time of extreme uncertainty.
The method is a part of the framework for decision making in complex and dynamic organisations. Basics are described in my book "Beyond Airline Disruptions - Thinking and Managing Anew".

Bridging the gap between strategy and operations in airline industry

Location: London     Fees: To be discussed

Service Type: Service Offered

Introduces the missing Reality Check phase in decision making processes at system level with focus on interconnections between strategy and operations. It engages people throughout organisation to discuss and suggests the solutions for resolving the critical real life problems.